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"Chaotic" predictions of Vietnamese coffee production

Vietnam's coffee exports are expected to decline sharply this season due to prolonged drought during the growth of trees and heavy rain at harvest. However, the market continues to focus attention on the next crop with different views on the prospects for Vietnamese coffee.

On Sunday (12/3), the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) predicts that this year's crop, Vietnam's coffee export turnover will be reduced by 20-30% over the same period last year. Due to limited and limited reserves.

Last year, Vietnamese coffee production was severely damaged not only by the drought in 30 years but also the heavy rain in December, which reduced the quality of coffee beans.

However, "in the risk of sewing" the recent heavy rains have increased the amount of water available for the next crop. Carlos Mera, an analyst with Rabobank, said this is a positive sign for the next crop. He also predicted Vietnam's coffee crop will reach record levels.

Agrimoney reported that in February, Vietnam exported 2.44 million bags of coffee (146,402 tonnes), catching up with Brazil's largest coffee exporter, with 2.48 million bags sold in the market. foreign. Although Vietnam's coffee supply to the world market was slightly disrupted by the Lunar New Year holiday, the export volume increased by 23%.

The strength of Vietnam's coffee export has made many investors and experts not surprised. I & M Smith said Vietnam's coffee export turnover exceeded all expectations.

Industry leaders in Vietnam earlier forecast that coffee exports in February would reach 2.17 million bags while traders forecast that this figure would fluctuate between 1.83 and 2.33 million bags.

In contrast, Vicofa warned that the coffee crop for the 2017-2018 crop would fall below the expected level for 2016-2017 of 24.3 million bags. This forecast by Vicofa is based on the fact that the area of ​​coffee plantations is rapidly declining.

Commerzbank argues that the fall in coffee prices in 2014 and 2015 has left farmers no longer eager for more of these and switching to other crops.

"It would be a great surprise if farmers return to grow coffee," said Mera.

However, according to Commerzbank's report, coffee plantations in Dak Lak province can be reduced by 30%.

More than that, according to a US investor, Vietnamese farmers are more likely to intercrop other crops instead of just waiting for coffee. Therefore, the number of coffee trees fell by 3-7%.